Casmalia, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

494
FXUS66 KLOX 221235
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
435 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...22/313 AM.

Warmer than normal conditions will persist through Monday over
inland areas, with periods of dense fog and mild conditions near
the coast. Significant widespread warming likely Tuesday through
Thursday, including coastal areas, with breezy north to northeast
winds. Significant cooling to follow with chances of light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...22/320 AM.

The gusty northeast winds from Friday have weakened and shrunk to
just the most favored hills and mountains. This will continue to
be the case through the weekend. Northwest to north winds will
form on Monday, with gusts of 20 to 40 mph likely over the favored
areas like southern Santa Barbara County, the I-5 Corridor, and
the Antelope Valley.

High pressure aloft, centered to the southwest, will nose into
southwest California through Monday. This will bring a few degrees
of warming each day through Sunday or Monday over areas inland of
the beaches. High temperatures of 74 to 84 will be common, which
is on the order of 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Along the
immediate coastal areas, a very shallow marine layer will keep
dense fog around through at least the weekend and maybe longer.
Low confidence on exactly which areas will have low visibilities,
but Los Angeles County continues to have the highest odds. This
shallow marine layer will moderate beach temperatures closer to
normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/333 AM.

High pressure aloft will weaken a little but not go away Tuesday
through Thursday as a weak shortwave trough passes through
northern California and Oregon. This shortwave will induce a
1030-35 millibar surface high in its wake, which will strengthen
north-to-south pressure gradients and to a lesser degree, the
northeast-to-southwest pressure gradients. Both the GFS and ECMWF
project the LAX-BFL and SBA-BFL gradients to peak in the -7.0
millibar territory, which is above the 97th percentile for this
time of the year. This will likely bring gusty north to northeast
winds to the region. The combination of these winds and pressure
gradients, along with the persistent high pressure aloft, will
bring significant warming Tuesday and Wednesday, on top of the
relative warm period leading up to it. While there is a range of
temperature outcomes this far out, and the most likely outcome is
to see most highs in the 80 to 90 degree range, there is a
potential for that common range to be more in the 85 to 95 degree
range - which would push some coastal and valley areas close to
records. Both the GEFS and EPS ensembles suggest that the NBM is
way under-doing the temperatures, so the forecast has been
adjusted higher than the NBM. While overnight temperatures will
remain fairly mild, cannot rule out a Heat Advisory for the
hottest locations if that warmer scenario plays out.

Most projections show a weak cutoff low forming off the coast on
Thursday and passing through the area sometime between Thursday
afternoon and Friday Night. Thursday still looks warm, but will
lower from the Wednesday peak, then temperatures should lower
significantly into Friday. This low will also bring a 20-30%
chance of rain to the region. If rain does materialize, fairly
high confidence that amounts and rates will be light (under 0.50
inches) with minimal impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1234Z.

At 0759Z at KLAX, there was a surfaced based inversion up to 2000
feet with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in the current forecast for all terminals, except
for moderate confidence in the current forecast for Los Angeles
County coastal terminals. Dense fog is likely (70% chance) to
arrive at KSMO around 13-14Z. There is a moderate-to-high chance
of VLIFR to LIFR conditions with periods of dense fog for KLAX and
KLGB (and KSMO if cigs develop) through around 16-18Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Dense fog with VSBY between
1/4-1/2SM is likely this morning. Skies should clear to VFR
conditions between 16Z and 18Z. There is a 20% chance of an east
wind component reaching 6-8 kts until 17Z Sat.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/320 AM.

For all the Outer Waters and the nearshore waters along the
Central Coast, there is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) conditions this afternoon and evening. Sunday afternoon and
evening chances will increase to a 40-50% chance, as winds and
seas are likely to hover around SCA levels at this time. Monday
and Tuesday SCA conditions are very likely, especially Tuesday
where there is also the potential for Gale Force winds for the
outer waters.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, wind and seas are
likely to remain below SCA levels through Sunday, then there is a
low- to- moderate (20-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds
Monday and Tuesday next week, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. The highest chance will be across the western
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for
      zones 87-362-366-368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Hall/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox